10. Evidence-based policy making: what is it and how do we get it?^[1]

In an address sponsored by the Australia and New Zealand School of Government, I thought a couple of quotes about government itself might be a good place to start. P. J. O’Rourke, who is scheduled to speak in Australia in April 2009, once said, ‘the mystery of Government is not how it works, but how to make it stop’. In an earlier century, Otto von Bismarck is famously reported to have said, ‘Laws are like sausages: it’s better not to see them being made.’

Those witty observations have become enduring aphorisms for a reason. They reflect a rather cynical and widespread view of long standing about the operations of government. Also, let’s face it, within government itself, many of us today find ourselves laughing knowingly at the antics of The Hollowmen, just as we did with Yes, Minister; and perhaps also cringing in recognition at how a carefully crafted policy proposal can be so easily subverted, or a dubious policy can triumph with little real evidence or analysis to commend it.

The idea for The Hollowmen was apparently conceived, and the first few episodes developed, under the previous government. That said, a change of government did not seem to reduce the program’s appeal, or its ratings. No doubt that is because it contains some universal realities of political life—notwithstanding which party happens to be in power. And, indeed, notwithstanding the greater emphasis placed by the current government on evidence-based policy making, as reflected in a variety of reviews and in new processes and structures within the Commonwealth and COAG.

Thus, we have seen considerable public debate about the basis for a range of recent policy initiatives. These include: the ‘alco-pops’ tax, the change in the threshold for the private insurance surcharge, the linkage of Indigenous welfare payments to school attendance, Fuel Watch, Grocery Watch and the Green Car Innovation Fund. There was similar public debate under the previous government about the basis for such initiatives as the Alice-to-Darwin rail link, the Australia–US Free Trade Agreement, the Baby Bonus, the banning of filament light bulbs, Work Choices and the National Water Initiative, among others.

Moreover, where public reviews inform such initiatives, they have themselves been subjected to considerable criticism—in relation to their make-up, their processes and the quality of their analysis. This too is obviously not a new phenomenon, but it illustrates the challenges of properly implementing an evidence-based approach to public policy—and of being seen to have done so, which can be crucial to community acceptance of consequent policy decisions.