Chapter 3. The Political Viability of Federal Reform: Interpreting Public Attitudes

Does ‘regionalism’ have a popular basis in Australian political culture? When mapping possibilities for the future of Australian federalism, what is the contemporary ‘realm of the possible’ in terms of political support for reform to address long term deficits in regional governance? These questions are fundamental to understanding where current tensions and trends are leading the federal system. As outlined in the preceding chapters, and shown by many that follow, Australian federalism is not static – in response to diverse pressures, it is shifting and facing new institutional developments. But which options are recognisable by the larger community, which have their support, and which are sustainable? When it comes to institutional strategies for making and delivering better public policy at a community level, which might have greater success or durability if they did resonate more strongly with citizen preferences? How much support exists for institutional restructuring, and where in our community is it based?

Understanding public opinions about Australian federalism is important, not only for answers to these practical questions, but because many political leaders and commentators presume that if it exists at all, public awareness of federalism is unsophisticated. A leading analyst, Brian Galligan, suggests we should resign ourselves to a permanent state of popular disaffection with the federal system, predicting there will probably always be ‘critics calling for its abolition’ even though ‘abolitionist scenarios are for idle speculators’ (Galligan 1995: 61, 253). These observations recognise the regularity with which public debate returns to the question of whether federalism needs major restructuring, if not through the creation of new states as once envisaged under the Constitution, then through the replacement of all states with alternative regional governments. Even Australia’s second longest serving Prime Minister can be found among the ‘speculators’, having said that ‘if you were starting Australia all over again you would have a national government and 20 regional governments’ (Howard 1991); ‘if we had our time again, we might have organised ourselves differently’ (Howard 2005). Nevertheless, John Howard, like Brian Galligan, agrees we do not have this luxury, and retreats to the view this would now be an ‘empty theoretical exercise’ (Howard 2002) or ‘pure theorising’ (Howard 2005). But meanwhile, the debate refuses to go away, public criticism of federalism continues, and policy pressures continue to mount. As recently as March 2007, the Sydney Morning Herald recorded the following results to a snap on-line poll:

Do such calls for change amount to more than mere speculation, and by more closely examining them, can we now help inform a more coherent approach? This chapter seeks to make better sense of public opinion about the federal system using evidence from pilot surveys of random samples of Australian adults undertaken in Queensland in 2001 and, more recently, in New South Wales (NSW) in 2005. To better establish whether popular pressure for reform really only consists of idle speculation, these surveys have begun to explore the breadth of support for and change in the federal institutions, so as to better inform discussions about the institutional options that might be worth considering. The first survey, in September 2001, asked 301 Queensland adults about their attitudes to existing institutions and their expectations of, and preferences for, change or maintenance of the status quo (Brown 2002a, 2002b). In late 2005, these questions were repeated in a survey of 502 adults in of New South Wales, supplemented by more detailed questions on satisfaction with government and demographic data. This second study provides the bulk of analysis that follows, and was conducted by Griffith University’s Federalism Project and Charles Sturt University’s Centre for Rural Social Research with funding from a Griffith University Research Encouragement Grant, Charles Sturt University School of Humanities and Social Sciences and NSW Farmers’ Association (see Brown, Gray and Giorgas 2006).^[1] These surveys have helped form the background to national attitudinal research, now in progress.

Both surveys were conducted by telephone with respondents selected at random from telephone listings, being the person aged over 18 years whose birthday came next in each household contacted. In both studies, to facilitate regional comparisons, rural regions were oversampled. In Queensland, this enabled comparative analysis of attitudes in Greater Brisbane and the Gold and Sunshine Coasts, against those of Southern Queensland, Central Queensland, and North Queensland (Brown 2002b). In the NSW survey, this enabled comparison between Greater Sydney, Hunter and New England, Illawarra and South East NSW, Western NSW, and the Riverina (Brown et al 2006: 294-7). In each case the results were also then re-weighted by area and age to give statistically accurate statewide results (indicated as (w) in the relevant tables below). In both studies, urban and metropolitan results proved just as interesting as rural ones, and are clearly of great political significance since it is these regions that contain the bulk of the voting population.

This chapter extends and reinforces some earlier findings from these studies, with particular reference to understanding the relationship between federalism and regionalism. The first part of the chapter examines the breadth of popular sympathy for change, and also its geographic distribution. These results confirm that Australians’ appetite for some reform of federalism is not restricted to idle speculators and that for many – indeed for a majority of citizens – it appears to extend significantly beyond the realms of ‘empty’ political theorising. To better understand who holds the strongest views in support of change, the second part of the chapter compares those most and least satisfied with existing institutions and those favouring more radical preferences for the future, against all other respondents, in a bid to locate any major demographic or sociological differences. The results show that critical attitudes of federalism and more radical preferences for change – which are not necessarily directly related – are widespread features of Australian society and not readily confined to particular regions or social groups. Instead, more radical preferences for change prove most popular among those citizens most directly engaged in the economy (by way of employment), especially by way of government employment, as well as those most directly engaged in governance more generally through community organisations or committees. It seems not only that many more Australians are interested in reform than previously understood, but that many also expect it. Given the dynamic state of developments in governance, what does this suggest about the realms of ‘the possible’ for institutional reform?