Clearly, the worsening economic status of Aboriginal people in the East Kimberley, as measured by the growing gap in relative regional incomes and increasing Aboriginal reliance on welfare, is to a large extent a function of their continued failure to adequately participate in the mainstream labour market. In recent years, the thrust of policy aimed at reducing welfare dependence and raising economic status has been towards increasing mainstream employment, especially in the private sector. As we have seen, this has not been adequately achieved, at least up to 2001. What then is the scale of the task ahead if the aims of policy remain the same, and what impact will the projected Argyle employment numbers have? To establish this, we can use the projection of the future size of the working age population shown in Table 2.7 and consider this against expected growth in employment.

Aboriginal population totals for the Northern East Kimberley projected to 2016 are shown in Table 3.8 by selected age groups, together with numeric and percentage change from the 2001 ERP. Overall, by 2016, the Indigenous population is projected to increase by 35% (or 2.3% per annum) to reach a population of 5,831—an increase of just over 1,500 persons. As shown by the percentage change by age group, much of this growth will occur in the working age groups with the adult population over 15 years increasing by more than 1,100. Realistically, a focussed age grouping would be more appropriate for establishing future needs, but even if those in the age range 15-44 are selected as the ones most likely to be targeted for emerging opportunities in the regional labour market in the years ahead, this age group is still set to increase by 763. What are the implications, then, of these projections for future Indigenous employment requirements?

The answer to this depends very much on future prospects for additional Aboriginal job creation. To estimate this, the observed rate of growth in Aboriginal employment in the East Kimberley as a whole between 1996 and 2001 (1.8% per annum) is continued for the projection period. However, included in this is an assumption that CDEP will account for all of the net growth in Aboriginal jobs over the projection period. This reflects the situation between 1996 and 2001 as Aboriginal numbers employed in mainstream work actually fell during this time by 30%. At the same time, CDEP growth is augmented by the anticipated new jobs for Aboriginal workers to be created at Argyle assuming that planned targets are achieved. As noted above, compared to 2001, this represents an additional 126 positions by 2016. Options for increased employment off-site via sub-contracting and joint venturing have not been included in this estimation for want of adequate data.

Three future employment scenarios are explored in Table 3.9. The first considers the number of jobs that would be required by 2016 if the 2001 Indigenous employment/population ratio were to remain unchanged at 45.7% (inclusive of CDEP). The answer is 1,688 or an additional 481. With 490 additional jobs expected to be produced (364 from continued expansion of CDEP and 126 from ADM targets for local employment), this means that there will be just enough extra jobs to maintain the status quo in terms of the overall employment/population ratio. In effect, then, no impact on the current employment rate is envisaged.

The second scenario considers the extra jobs required to maintain the reported mainstream employment population ratio of 16.2%. This reveals that job growth net of CDEP will be insufficient to match growth in the working age population resulting in a deficit of 44 jobs and producing a reduction in the mainstream employment/population ratio from 16.2 to 15.0. The final scenario considers the future job requirements necessary to raise the Indigenous employment/population ratio to the mainstream level recorded for non-Aboriginal residents (81.3%). This produces a massive job deficit of 1,306 by 2016. In other words, the number of Aboriginal people in work across the Northern East Kimberley would need to more than double over the 15 year period with almost 100 extra jobs required each year—a task of an order of magnitude way beyond the capacity of current policy settings, and clearly in excess of any impact due to ADM targets despite the fact that these are ambitious.

To summarise, because of the relative balance between projected population growth and anticipated employment growth, even if the substantial ADM employment targets for local Aboriginal people are met this will not result in any noticeable change in the Aboriginal employment/population ratio according to the assumptions applied because of the relatively small numbers involved. This estimation is inclusive of further growth in CDEP scheme employment. If the focus is solely on sustaining current mainstream employment rates, then the ADM targets are definitely insufficient to impact on regional labour force status.^[5] In terms of actually improving Aboriginal labour force status to anything approaching the norm for non-Aboriginal residents of the region, this task is way beyond any impact that could emanate from employment at the mine site.

This last observation raises the fact that no estimation has been made here regarding any enhanced labour market opportunity that might result for Aboriginal people as a consequence of work experience and/or training gained at ADM. Certainly, the number of individuals with work experience at the mine will undoubtedly exceed the number of those in such employment at any one time given the nature of turnover in the mine workforce, and the question arises as to whether work experience at Argyle leads on to work elsewhere within the region thereby raising overall Aboriginal employment levels. Other regional multipliers for Aboriginal employment may also emanate in the form of sub-contracting and joint venturing with future mine operations, but the possible scale of these remains unknown at this stage. Having said that, some of this already occurs via intermediate labour market programs that are available to communities in the region to engage workers (often CDEP workers) in commercial-type operations with work experience on ADM related projects such as road maintenance. It is estimated by ADM that such activities could involve around 150 individuals over the next 5 years. More importantly, ADM has also established an Indigenous Employment and Training Strategy (2003-2007) with the Commonwealth Department of Employment and Workplace Relations (DEWR) worth $15m ($5m from DEWR and $10m from ADM) to provide employment and training for an additional 150 Aboriginal people via the ADM operation (Argyle Diamonds 2003). Aside from contributing to the achievement of ADM’s Aboriginal employment targets, the aim here is as much about providing accredited and transportable skills to enhance the capacity of local Aboriginal people to engage the regional labour market.

Whatever impact on Aboriginal labour force participation might arise from these efforts in coming years, the experience in recent years of an overall regional decline in Aboriginal mainstream employment, and the enormity of the task in hand required to turn this around, suggests that all areas of the regional labour market will need to be opened up as potential avenues for increased Aboriginal employment. This is particularly so among major regional employment sectors (tourism, agriculture, retailing, State government services) from which Aboriginal people are notably absent. If each of these were to achieve the same Aboriginal employment and training targets set by ADM for future years, and even if they matched those already achieved by ADM, only then would positive impact on regional labour force status be evident.