Against the stated aims of key Commonwealth and State policy initiatives, it is clear that economic outcomes for Aboriginal people in the Northern East Kimberley are less than optimal. Over the past 20 years, Aboriginal employment in the mainstream labour market has fallen, the Aboriginal share of total regional income has declined, and the gap between Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal residents of the region in terms of personal income levels has widened. Aboriginal people are less likely now to be participating in the workforce than before, and their levels of dependence on welfare have increased accordingly.

This conclusion has significance in light of the potential benefits and concerns expressed in regard to mine impacts in the original Ashton Joint Venture Environmental Review and Management Program (ERMP):

The pity is that a measure of these costs and benefits to the regional population is only now available some 20 years on, and that they were not the subject of continuous tracking over the life of the project.

If social and economic conditions for Aboriginal people remain the same as currently experienced, then the cost to government of providing income support and other welfare payments, as well as program support in areas of health, housing and CDEP in particular, will escalate over time in line with the growth in working age population. On the other hand, if Aboriginal people had more jobs at higher occupational levels, then, from their own incomes, they would be able to meet many of the basic needs that governments now provide for. Some estimate of the opportunity cost to government of simply continuing business as usual is provided here in the form of welfare dependency rates and associated estimates of dollar amounts. What is not costed, though, is the potentially greater public impost of excess disease burden, infrastructure replacement, and foregone educational outcomes due to the continued and growing marginalisation of Aboriginal people within the regional economy. It is important to recognise that the policy options for addressing this situation are not cost neutral—expenditure will grow either in response to declining economic status, or in order to enhance it. Whatever the case, a fiscal response is unavoidable.

Alongside the consideration of options to open up areas of the regional labour market to Aboriginal employment in the same manner as is underway at Argyle mine (Argyle Diamonds 2002), there is a parallel need to tackle much deeper structural hurdles if Aboriginal people are to successfully compete for skilled mainstream jobs with other residents (and potential in-migrants, both Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal). Aside from the fact that one-quarter of the adult population was arrested in 2001, these include poor literacy and numeracy levels, which in part reflect low school participation and attendance levels—only 73% of the regional school age population is enrolled, and average retention to year 12 amounts to only 10 individuals; only 25 Aboriginal students each year achieve benchmark competencies in Year 7 reading and writing; only 132 adults have post-secondary qualifications. Also for noting is the continuing high adult morbidity and mortality—if a 15 year old Indigenous male in the region has only a 60% chance of reaching age 60, then the physical limitations on prolonged and full participation in the workforce become all too apparent, especially if we add to this the high rates of morbidity and disability that are prevalent throughout the prime working ages.

With some residual residential access to Aboriginal lands in the region, and the possibility of more in the future via native title determinations, the extent to which real lifestyle choices are being made by the local population has also to be factored into any policy response. Clearly, the existence of continuing ties to country, and the customary economic activities that stem from this, means that opportunities for economic activity should be exploited wherever they emerge. In considering such options, one issue is the extent to which the full range of existing economic activities is adequately reflected in the official census statistics presented here. For example, it would appear that many locally significant tasks are either subsumed in the census under the label of ‘CDEP’ or ‘labouring’, or overlooked altogether due to their lack of fit with mainstream labour force categories. Examples of such activity abound in the literature and are associated with aspects of customary economy (hunting, fishing and gathering), art and craft manufacture, land management and ceremonial business (Altman 2002; Altman and Whitehead 2003; Bomford and Caughley 1996), often with fledgling or well-established employment potential.

Of interest here is the fact that census records for the region identify no Aboriginal artists, actors or dancers in its official occupational classification of those employed, and yet one of the mainstream employment success stories of the region is the manner in which private sector interests have combined with traditional culture to engage numerous individuals in meaningful and gainful employment. Noteworthy examples include the Warmun Arts Centre which has an annual turnover of $1m, has 88 artists registered, and employs 18 of these full-time with earnings well above the regional average. The Warmun-based Neminuwarlum Dance group is another. It is interesting to note that such synergies, and the general importance of art and art centres in generating local employment and income, has recently been acknowledged by the Northern Territory government with their launch of a $3.2 million Indigenous Arts Strategy (Northern Territory Government 2003).

Given their labour intensive nature and widespread occurrence, it is important to consider ways of strengthening such elements of customary economic activity as part of the broad strategy of raising employment levels. To date, the primary focus for future employment growth appears to have been on mining, and not surprisingly so given ADM’s targeted goals and the spread of exploration and mining activity more generally in the region such as at Sally Malay. However, set against the background of an expanding working age population, the additional work generated by such activities will be insufficient to keep up with extra demand leading to potential further deterioration of gross regional employment indicators, all other things being equal.

In the meantime, employment generation in most remote communities, and to some extent in towns as well, is most likely to occur via an import substitution model embracing activities such as the construction and maintenance of physical infrastructure, education, health services, retailing, public administration, transport, media, land restoration, land management and tourism. As argued, some of this diversity in economic activity is already in place via CDEP schemes, although it is rarely recognised as such, often being seen amorphously as 'just CDEP’ work. As for community-based jobs that are currently occupied by imported non-Aboriginal workers, these tend to be managerial and professional positions with a requisite need for skills. In any case, as with mining jobs, they are insufficient in number to satisfy the growing demand for employment, even if all positions were filled by Aboriginal people.