The polarisation of employment between Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal people that is observed in the regional labour market is mirrored, and has many of its antecedents, in terms of relative educational status. While the historic reality is that many older Aboriginal adults in the region have never attended school, it remains the case that not all of those in the current school age group are enrolled. It is estimated here that this might involve up to 25% of the regional population of compulsory school age. Among those who do enrol, their retention to year 10 is consistent with the level observed for Aboriginal students generally in Western Australia, which means that only some 15% fall away. However, retention to year 12 is a rarity and falls far below state averages. In effect, the average annual Aboriginal enrolment in year 10 in the region comprises some 60 students; in year 12 it is only ten. Not surprisingly, in 2001, the estimated number of Aboriginal adults in the region who claimed to have completed year 12 amounted to only 220, while an estimated 750 claimed year 10 level.

While the appropriate cross-tabulation has not been established, it seems reasonable to assume that these individuals would comprise a sizeable share, if not all, of the 428 Aboriginal adults estimated to be employed in the region outside of the CDEP scheme in 2001. In effect, all those with a basic competitive educational background would appear to be already in gainful mainstream employment, with as many again who are not. Any expansion of Aboriginal participation in mainstream employment would no doubt be readily taken up by the estimated 550 or so local adults who have at least year 10 level education but who were not gainfully employed in 2001. In terms of the potential for an educated Aboriginal labour supply to be sourced locally, this finding is encouraging. However, three other observations sound a note of caution.

First, it is noted that age at leaving school, and even highest year of schooling completed, does not necessarily equate with grade level achievement. To the extent that data are available to assess this, it is significant to note that only 21% of Aboriginal students in year 7 meet the benchmark in numeracy and 22% in reading, compared to figures of 81% and 85% of all students in the state. Again, in terms of actual numbers, these Aboriginal performance levels convert into an estimate of barely 25 students with benchmark competencies coming through the system each year—hardly an indication of substantial output from the local education system to feed the post-secondary training programs and future employment opportunities.

Second, somewhat similar calculations can be made in regard to VET sector output, although here the indications are more promising. While module load completion rates do not provide a direct measure of successful final outcomes in terms of producing qualified individuals, if the Aboriginal rate observed for the region is applied to Aboriginal enrolments, then this suggests a potential future output of around 300 individuals emerging from the VET system, mostly at certificate levels I to III. While this would convert to an increase in the current estimate of 130 Aboriginal adults in the region with post-secondary qualifications, many of these may well be the same people. Also, it is not known how many of those engaged in training already form part of the regional workforce, either with jobs in the mainstream or via CDEP.

Finally, the data on education and training participation and outcomes mean that local demand for Aboriginal labour as envisaged and targeted by ADM and other regional employers is likely to be matched by suitably qualified local supply. This is not least because of the efforts made by ADM itself in the area of training provision (Argyle Diamonds 2002, 2003). However, the extent of underperformance in both education and training means that the vast majority of Aboriginal adults in the region, both present and future, will be left uneducated, unqualified, unemployed, or underemployed on CDEP, and effectively marginalised in the face of any competition for jobs from more qualified countrymen or outsiders. Thus, the key regional development challenge is going to be in ensuring equitable, not just partial, participation.