Abstract
With the wide variety of methodologies measuring the population of this area, there is some confusion as to the precise number of residents in the Thamarrurr region as well as which population best represents regional planning.
The author demystifies this by examining the following: population size, community census, family size, mobility and service populations, age composition, age grades and population projections.
The Thamarrurr Region Council organised a count of its own people resulting in a baseline demographic database of the usual residents of its region, plus an estimate of the regional service population, providing a tool to consider the size of current and future needs.
The coastal lowlands to the south-west of Darwin facing the Joseph Bonaparte Gulf are rich in biodiversity based on a range of plant and animal ecosystems which include eroded plateaus, open woodlands, black soil plains, creeks, rivers, flood plains, fringing monsoon forests, coastal mangroves, beaches, and seas. The fact that these lands have high carrying capacity for subsistence living is demonstrated by the existence of six Indigenous languages from three language groups (Walsh 1990) and 20 clan estates within the relatively small area of the Thamarrurr region (approximately 105 km long by 75 km wide). Socially and economically, the area now circumscribed by the Thamarrurr Regional Council has been part of the complex of relatively dense Aboriginal settlement that has existed along the Northern Territory coast since time immemorial with systems of intertribal economic exchange connecting coastal peoples from the Darwin region through to the east Kimberley. Significantly, peoples of the Thamarrurr region connect the wunan exchange cycle from the south with the merbok system to the north (Akerman 1979; Stanner 1933b: 34).
Despite the cultural importance of the region in the Aboriginal world, from a non-Indigenous perspective the area between the Daly and Fitzmaurice rivers was one of the least known parts of the continent up to the mid 1930s (Stanner 1933b: 381). The numbers resident there were simply ‘guesstimated’ for pre-war censuses and then incorporated into the general estimate of full-blood Aboriginal population for the entire Daly River census district. At the time of first European settlement in the region following the establishment of the Catholic mission in 1935, first at Wentek Nganayi (Old Mission), and then at Port Keats (now Wadeye) in 1939, the Aboriginal population was distributed widely across the region according to custom (Pye 1973). Stanner, who accompanied the missionaries on their arrival at Wentek Nganayi, records that some of those with family and attachments in the region were located as far afield as the pastoral country south of the Fitzmaurice at Bradshaw and Auvergne stations and in the East Kimberley, and more generally around the Daly River farms (Miscellaneous field notebooks 1932–1977, Australian Institute of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Studies [AIATSIS] Stanner Collection Series 4, Item 2).
Stanner’s arrival with the missionaries produced the first actual population count. In 1935 he recorded 125 individuals in the vicinity of Wentek Nganayi, and by 1936 he already noted the process of others moving in to congregate around the fledgling mission (Miscellaneous field notebooks 1932–1977, AIATSIS Stanner Collection Series 4, Item 2). Regular annual counting of the population (at least of those in contact with the Port Keats mission) became a requirement in the post-war years as part of the reporting of civil administration, initially to the Native Affairs Branch and then (from 1953) to the Welfare Branch of the Northern Territory Administration. As a consequence, total population counts of Port Keats are available in the Annual Reports of the Northern Territory Administration for each year from 1950 to 1973 and these include the number of male and female adults and children. Subsequently, the official count of the population has been sourced via the five-yearly ABS census. From 1976 to 1996, this provided a count of individuals present at Wadeye on census night, with those at outstations simply included as part of a much larger number representing the balance of the entire Daly SLA. For the 2001 census, however, outstations located in the Thamarrurr region were collectively identified for the first time as an Indigenous Location (IL).
Aside from these counts of the population, various estimates of the resident population have been produced from time to time using a variety of methods and definitions of what constitutes the resident population. For example, the ABS census attempts to count all individuals whose usual residence is at Wadeye IL and Wadeye outstations IL. In recognition of the fact that it fails to count some people, the ABS develops post-census estimates of the ‘true’ resident population by augmenting SLA-level usual residence counts according to an estimate of those missed (net undercount), as well as other demographic adjustments. This produces an Estimated Resident Population (ERP), which in effect becomes the official population of each SLA in Australia for the purposes of electoral representation and financial distributions. As noted in Table 1.1, the Thamarrurr region is nested within the Daly SLA, and so an ERP for Thamarrurr would have to be derived pro rata from the latter. While such adjustment is not routinely carried out by the ABS at sub-SLA level owing to reduced reliability, the ABS did prepare 2001 ERPs for the Indigenous Locations of Wadeye and Wadeye outstations in response to a request from the Northern Territory Department of Health and Community Services. Thus, for 2001, an ‘official’ ERP for the Thamarrurr region can be said to exist by combining these two.
However, other population estimates are also available. For example, in 1992 and 1999, and then again prior to the 2001 Census, the ABS conducted the CHINS from which it derived an estimate of usual resident numbers for all discrete Aboriginal communities in Australia, no matter how small.[1] As this included all Thamarrurr outstations a complete population estimate for the region can be derived. However, it should be noted that these CHINS data are not based on counts—they represent estimates derived from administrative sources as supplied by key informants, usually council officers. In the case of Thamarrurr, such data would have emanated from the Murin Association, and from the Kardu Numida Council.
In addition to these ABS data, various regional service providers construct population lists of clients drawn from their catchment areas. In Wadeye, for example, the clinic, the school, Centrelink, and the CDEP scheme all service the town population as well as many outlying settlements. Indeed, as a regional centre of some note with employment, housing, banking, retail facilities, and an air route, Wadeye caters for the diverse needs of many individuals throughout the south-west corner of the Territory’s Top End, attracting population either on a short-term or long-term basis. Inevitably, such individuals are captured by client listings and these can be variously accessed confidentially to generate useful additional sources of demographic data, if applied judiciously. These are especially helpful in compiling an estimate of service population—usual residents plus short-term residents and visitors who place an added burden on regional services and infrastructure. The Northern Territory Local Government Grants Commission produces such an estimate based on a rolling three-year average of the ERP population and an estimate of visitors. Historically too, a number of attempts have been made by individuals and authorities to derive a population for Wadeye using a mix of head counting and administrative data. For example, in 1982, the clinic reported a population in the region of 1200 (Natoli 1982) while the Northern Territory Department of Community Development (NTDCD) recorded 1156 in 1985 (NTDCD Aboriginal Communities database). In 1994 Desmarchelier (2001: 41) estimated a population of 1950 using a combination of administrative data and head counting. With such a plethora of population counts and estimates based on a variety of methodologies, it is no wonder that some confusion arises as to the precise numbers resident in the Thamarrurr region and exactly which population best represents regional planning needs.
As noted, initial population numbers in the region remain unknown. However, by 1950 a total of 310 Aboriginal people were counted at Port Keats mission and Stanner claimed in 1952 that the rate of growth was such that the numbers would double within 20 years (Sydney Morning Herald, 8 December 1952: 6). According to Long’s (1961) survey of the mission population in 1961, this prediction was well on track as he counted 447 residents and noted that others were located at East Arm leprosarium and generally in the ‘bush’. By the time of the 1971 Census, the population at Port Keats outstripped Stanner’s claim with 766 counted. According to Stanner’s assessment (correspondence with Robert Layton, AIATSIS Stanner Collection, Series 4, Item 2) this steady rise in numbers was due to declining death rates and sustained high fertility during the mission years of the 1950s and 1960s, together with some in-migration. The effects of this on population numbers are clearly shown in Figure 2.1. While some post 1971 estimates point to a continuation of this trend of relatively high growth into the self-management era (Natoli (1982) and Desmarchelier (1994) indicating 1200 in 1982 and 1950 in 1994 respectively), the various ABS census counts from 1976 to 2001 suggest a quite different and more subdued trajectory. Between 1971 and 1976, the ABS count at Wadeye barely increased (from 766 to 819). It then fell to 768 in 1981, then rose slightly to 844 in 1986, rose substantially to 1236 in 1991, only to fall again to 1183 in 1996 and to 936 in 2001.
These census counts suggest that since 1971 the town of Wadeye experienced a period of no growth, followed by a period of rapid growth, followed by population decline. However, it should be noted that these counts refer only to the settlement at Wadeye and do not include outstations. Up to the 2001 Census, any persons counted at Wadeye outstations were included in the count for the much larger balance of Daly SLA. In 2001, a total of 443 persons were counted within the newly created Wadeye outstations IL. Combined with Wadeye town, this produced a regional total for Thamarrurr of 1379. Unfortunately, as noted, this was the first census that a separate outstation count was recorded and so it is not known to what extent previous census counts for the region might also have been augmented by people present at outstations. Consequently, the regional population trend based on census numbers is difficult to interpret as the Wadeye counts vary widely, and even the number counted at outstations in 2001 (443) appears inexplicably excessive as indications from the 2001 CHINS and from the Murin Association and Thamarrurr Regional Housing Authority (which tend to refer to service populations) are that outstation numbers rarely exceed 150.
Notwithstanding these difficulties, the indication based on historic mission data is that census counts after 1976 fall short of what might have been expected unless one of two demographic events occurred—either a substantial reduction in natural increase, or a significant net out-migration. While evidence to inform these propositions is slim, both Natoli (1982) and Stanley (1985) report an average of 50 plus births per annum at Wadeye in the early 1980s which is suggestive of continued high natural increase in line with that observed during the 1960s. As for the notion that people were leaving the region in large numbers, this does not accord with the corporate recollection of service providers and local leadership. Indeed, one of the factors identified as leading to the collapse of the Kardu Numida Council in 1994 was its inability to respond to the needs of a growing town (Desmarchelier 2001: 41). The only data source that reports on the long-term movement of individuals in and out of the region is the census, and for the most recent inter-census period (1996–2001) this indicates zero net migration for the Indigenous population.
Of course, much depends when comparing population counts and estimates from different sources on the various counting rules applied, as it is rare that these ever match exactly. In respect of the ABS census, it is claimed that each person in Australia is counted only once. At the 2001 Census, this produced a de facto population of 1492 persons for the IA covering Wadeye and outstations (Table 2.1). Of these, 1379 were recorded as Aboriginal persons and 89 as non-Aboriginal. In 24 cases, Aboriginal status was not recorded. These figures were very similar to the numbers recorded as de jure usual residents of the same area (Table 2.1).
The ABS uses these de jure population counts to produce its final census-based estimates of the population for each SLA in the country. Since Wadeye and its outstations do not comprise an SLA, no official post-census adjustment is available. However, as a consultancy service for the NT Department of Health and Community Services (NTDHCS), the ABS apportioned the 2001 Daly SLA ERP to CD level to derive an ‘ERP’ for the IA of Wadeye and outstations. This produced a figure of 1665, with the Aboriginal population component amounting to 1552 (Table 2.1).
Table 2.1. Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal ABS census counts and post-censal estimatesa: Thamarrurr regionb, 2001
|
Aboriginal |
Non-Aboriginal |
Not stated |
Total |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Census count (de facto) |
1379 |
89 |
24 |
1492 |
|
Usual residence count (de jure) |
1396 |
94 |
23 |
1513 |
|
Estimated usual residents (ERP) |
1552 |
113 |
n/a |
1665 |
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The ERP cited in this table was derived by the ABS using a crude methodology and provided to the DHCS Health Zones project. The ABS does not directly prepare sub-SLA ERPs as the data required to support them is not available at this geographic level. The ABS apportions SLA level ERPs to CDs in order to facilitate the estimation of the approximate populations for non-standard regions. However, these do not have the same quality status as directly estimated state and territory level ERPs.
-
b. Wadeye and outstations IA
Source: ABS Darwin, customised tables
For a number of reasons, doubts were raised by local service providers and community leaders in the Thamarrurr region regarding the utility of this ABS estimate for the purposes of establishing regional planning needs; it was considered to inadequately represent the true size, and to some extent the composition, of the resident population. In support of this belief, a number of alternate estimates of the population were presented, all pointing to the likelihood of higher numbers. While demographic information supplied by Centrelink in respect of clients with an address in Wadeye did yield a population in line with the ABS estimate that was supplied to the DHCS, this was insufficient to overcome the weight of evidence feeding local perceptions. This evidence included:
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An estimate of Aboriginal usual residents compiled in 1994 based on a head count in combination with local administrative records derived a population of 1950 for Wadeye (Desmarchelier 2001).
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The Wadeye clinic had an estimate of its ‘active client’ Aboriginal population of 1916 in August 2003. This was the number of Aboriginal people who were recorded on the Wadeye Health Clinic system and had been attended to at the clinic sufficiently recently for both health workers and local staff to believe that the person currently resided in Wadeye and was not recorded on a health clinic system elsewhere.
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Between March and July of 2003, the Commonwealth Electoral Commission toured the region to update the Commonwealth electoral roll and recorded a total of 940 Aboriginal adults (18 years and over) who indicated a usual residence address within Thamarrurr. Using the ABS age structure for Thamarrurr, this would indicate an overall population somewhere in the region of 1900, not unlike that recorded by the clinic.
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The Health Insurance Commission indicated a total of 2089 Aboriginal clients with a residential address within the Thamarrurr region in August 2003.
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Comparison of the 1996 and 2001 ABS ERPs for the Daly SLA indicated an inter-census growth in the Aboriginal population of barely one per cent per annum—only 58 per cent of the Northern Territory Aboriginal average. These data also indicated a reduction in the population aged 0–4 of almost 10 per cent. By contrast, the perception of local leaders and service providers was of a regional population growing at least at the Territory level, if not higher, with a substantial increase in the number of infants due to high fertility.
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The ABS 2001 ERP for Thamarrurr also indicated that only 41 per cent of the population was less than 15 years of age. This was substantially less than the figure of 47 per cent reported for the Aboriginal population of the Territory as a whole, again contrary to local perceptions.
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The Northern Territory Grants Commission (NTGC) reported an estimated population for the region of 2215 in 2001.
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The 2001 CHINS reported the number of usual residents estimated in the Thamarrurr region as 2360.
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Finally, in August 2003, the Thamarrurr Housing Office had a population register of some 2300 individuals who had resided in the region at some time over the previous year.
Thus, the ERP of the ABS/NTDHCS was only one of several population estimates available to the Thamarrurr council for planning purposes, although it is the only one of those listed above that claims to be based on individuals who are uniquely recorded as usual residents of the Thamarrurr region and nowhere else, even though the final number is estimated. The term ‘aims to’ is used here as individuals are often not physically or individually ‘counted’ in the census since information regarding individuals is invariably gleaned from a select key informant (or informants) at each household in respect of other household members. This practise of using key informants to glean information about community residents is also used in compiling some of these other estimates.
Obviously, because of the different methodologies applied, the ABS/NTDHCS ERP is not directly comparable to these other figures. If we take the clinic population figure as an example, aside from the different basis for counting (essentially a population list of recent clients assumed not to be on any other list), the clinic figure does not incorporate the whole regional population as it omits infrequent users of the clinic as well as some of those from outlying settlements in the east of the region (such as Nemarluk, Wudapuli, and Merrepen), who are more likely to be serviced by Daly River clinic. It is also the case that some of these other estimates (NTGC, CHINS and the Thamarrurr Housing Office) refer more to a service population level, rather than an estimate of usually resident population. NTGC figures, for example, refer explicitly to an estimate of the populations ‘serviced’ by councils. To establish these, the Commission receives from councils an annual estimate of the populations that they service based on a variety of methods including head counts, housing records, and environmental health surveys. It then uses public hearings and council visits to test the veracity of the population figures supplied. This is a quite different methodology and conceptual base for estimation than that used to develop ABS ERPs.
In addition to these methodological differences, a further distinction between most of these figures and the ABS/NTDHCS ERP is, of course, the fact that the former refer mostly to 2003, whereas the ABS/NTDHCS figure is for 2001. Thus, to compare at all, even if this were conceptually meaningful, would require the 2001 ERP to be re-estimated for 2003. This is something that ABS methods do not provide for owing to a lack of data to inform sub-SLA inter-census estimates. However, in the absence of a reliable methodology, a crude approximation of this can be calculated using expected natural increase between 2001 and 2003 on the basis of recent levels in the Daly SLA apportioned to Thamarrurr. From this, it can be assumed that an ABS/NTDHCS Indigenous ERP for 2003, were it to be established, would have been around 1700.