From Table 2.4, the resident Aboriginal population of working age in Thamarrurr is projected to almost double in size from 1104 in 2003 to 2133 by 2023—an increase of 1029, or 93 per cent. Clearly, the economic status of Aboriginal people in the region is largely a function of their continued failure to adequately participate in paid economic activity. What then is the scale of the task ahead if a key aim of the ICCP process is to enhance such participation?

Three future employment scenarios are explored in Table 3.7. The first considers the number of jobs that would be required by 2023 if the 2003 Aboriginal employment to population ratio were to remain unchanged at the current very low rate of 16.1 per cent (inclusive of CDEP). The answer is 343. Thus, the current workforce would need to double in size over the next 20 years simply to avoid any further deterioration in the low employment rate. However, what if the target sought by the Thamarrurr partnership was to double the employment rate, which would bring it in line with the rate recorded for all Aboriginal people in the Northern Territory in 2001? This might be seen as moving to ‘normalise’ the situation at Wadeye—a term that is now part of the lexicon of planning within the Thamarrurr region signalling the pursuit of equity in social and economic conditions. Against this scenario, the additional jobs required amount to more than 500—a task in order of magnitude that would seem to be way beyond the capacity of current policy settings.

Source: Author's own calculations