Contrary to the situation of population decline and ageing that constitutes the ‘regional problem’ for many parts of agricultural Australia, the ‘problem’ in the Thamarrurr region is how to accommodate growth and a burgeoning youthful profile. This is an expanding population with high growth momentum, that is committed to country (undeniably mobile, but not overtly migrant), and which is likely to produce the Territory’s fourth largest town within a generation. From the time of their first contact with non-Aboriginal people in the mid-nineteenth century, but especially since Catholic missionaries arrived to settle in the 1930s, Aboriginal peoples of the region have experienced significant demographic change involving the concentration of previously dispersed population groups into the town of Wadeye and substantial growth in population numbers due mostly to natural increase. This recent phase of high population growth coincides first of all with the integration of Aboriginal people into mission life, and more recently, with the extension of citizen entitlements and related expansion of service provision in the region, notably in areas of health and social security.

As for the non-Aboriginal residents, their numbers have increased since the days of mission control although they remain fairly steady as a share of the regional population (around five per cent) given the direct link between non-Aboriginal residence and skilled employment mostly in administration and the provision of essential services. If one of the development impacts in coming years is an expansion of economic activity and service provision requiring further skilled labour, one effect that the Thamarrurr Region Council will need to consider is the possibility that this will lead to an increase in the non-Aboriginal population of the region.

While the Thamarrurr population can be geographically defined, it is in no way socially bound, with family, social and economic links to all surrounding regions. Already, a floating population from this extended pool adds to the numbers resident in the region at any one time and results in additional loads placed on services, notably housing. To the extent that this short-term movement into and out of the Thamarrurr region is a response to a perceived balance of opportunities and constraints (pushes and pulls) between different localities across a much wider Top End social and economic network, the potential for developments at Thamarrurr to alter the balance of regional place utility in its own favour may serve to increase service population loads. Examples here might include an upgrading of the school to secondary status, improved housing availability, or successful economic development leading to job creation.

The overriding demographic characteristic is high Aboriginal fertility leading to sustained rapid population growth and a high proportion of infants and children. This will lead to an almost doubling of the Aboriginal population within a generation with high potential for continued growth beyond that. However, the big unknown in this demographic equation remains net migration, although it does appear that individuals born within the region conduct their affairs and pass through life mostly in situ. This demographic stability reflects, in part, the strength of cultural continuity and a desire and growing capacity to sustain chosen lifestyles on country. But an untested and important question is the extent to which it also reflects an incapacity to engage wider social and economic structures for want of adequate human capital.

While the projections of population are correct according to the algorithms applied, they provide only a possible scenario. One device frequently deployed for planning purposes is to canvass a range of possible outcomes based on varying assumptions. An obvious further development, then, would be the generation of alternative scenarios based on possible combinations of falling, rising or stable fertility and mortality and varying assumptions about net migration. While there is some exploratory potential here in providing answers to what if questions, this should be based on plausible assumptions. Just as an example, if the TFR in the present projection was allowed to decline by one per cent per annum, and all other projection assumptions remained intact, then the regional population by 2023 would be noticeably lower at 3564, while the base of the age pyramid would be less pronounced with much reduced population momentum. Such a scenario is entirely feasible. Indeed an even more substantial reduction in future population growth could easily be envisaged if, for example, wholesale use of fertility control technology were to be adopted, in particular female contraception (information on the prevalence of family planning is not easily acquired, and so the extent to which current fertility might already be controlled by such methods is difficult to assess). In such a situation the effects of reduced fertility would substantially impact on future numbers with planning consequences quite different from those implied by the present set of figures. Thus, an abiding feature of population projections is the stimulus they provide for debate on the future demographic outcomes of particular social and economic behaviours. As such, they enable community discussion about alternate paths to regional objectives.

Local interest in such matters of demography is clearly evident. Because of concerns regarding the accuracy of official population figures, a highly significant step in developing baseline demographic data was the decision by the Thamarrurr Region Council to organise to count its own people. A key to the success of this count was the use of locally generated population lists as a cross-check against individuals recorded at dwellings—a device that has been demonstrated elsewhere to enhance population coverage (Martin and Taylor 1996). As a consequence, Thamarrurr Council now has a baseline demographic database of the usual residents of its region, plus an estimate of the regional service population, with which to consider the size of current and future needs. This process was an important exercise in capacity building for governance as it involved key local people in collecting and verifying their own population data to be used for their own purposes. No longer do Canberra or Darwin tell Thamarrurr who they are, Thamarrurr tells them!