I have reluctantly come to the view that perhaps the best thing we can hope for (work towards) is that the current regime (however illegitimate it is) succeeds. By succeed I mean that it safely steers the nation back to democratic rule. I don’t believe that the commander will step aside voluntarily – and perhaps there are dangers if he does. I believe that a failure of this regime is the far worse option because it suggests – most likely – a fragmentation of the military and a violent power struggle erupting within the country.

My view of the future is a mixed one. On the positive side, we have always managed to muddle through and to find a way out of the political mess left by a coup. Sometimes it has taken years and the toll has been high (for example, in economic terms and in ‘brain drain’ terms). But there is a resilience about Fiji that defies the most pessimistic prognoses. There have been some hard lessons learnt but there have been some positive outcomes as well. For example, in the wake of the 1987 coups – in the decade that followed – Fiji witnessed a flourishing of civil society organizations stepping into the gaps left by a political establishment weakened and tainted by the military coups of 1987. These have, for the most part, been a positive force in Fijian society. The fact that they appear weakened by the latest coup is a cause for concern but this does not spell the end for civil society activism.

I also believe that two of the core policies of the Bainimarama regime hold the key to our future development as a nation. One is the campaign against corruption – corruption that in turn has been fostered by the mismanagement and abuse of affirmative action programs over the years. The failure to deliver on the part of our leaders because of corruption continues to fuel discontent and frustration, especially among our more marginalized Fijian communities which have been led to expect much more.

The other policy is the proposed removal of the communal-based electoral system that has encouraged racial polarization in elections and has caused politicians to employ racially divisive and nationalistic tactics. I do not believe we will ever progress politically if we continue to be tied to the communal voting system; I don’t think we will see truly national leaders (as opposed to parochial, ethnic leaders) emerge within the confines of the current communal system.

But for change to come about – whether it is change to eliminate corruption or change to remove communal voting – there has to be acceptance and understanding of the need for change. The charter process has so far not succeeded in building that necessary consensus. In fact, it is only reinforcing a coup-tendency to impose solutions by force.

On the negative side, then, the outlook for a coup-free future does not look very promising. If anything, the latest coup may have virtually sealed our fate as a coup-prone society. It would take a huge leap of faith to believe that somehow the coup ‘solution’ will never again be contemplated by a future military commander, or even his junior officers. Such a fate is shared with other countries in our wider neighborhood, such as Philippines and Thailand.

Moreover, while many people in Fiji appear to be ambivalent about democracy, there is also confusion over how a coup may be portrayed as ‘right’ or ‘legal’ when it is clearly a violent and destabilizing act that erodes the rule of law. We are becoming a nation that is increasingly unable to distinguish between right and wrong.

The means to carry out a coup will always be there (so long as we have a military). What needs to change is the belief that carrying out a coup is a justifiable (and just) political option. As the latest coup revealed, support (whether tacit or explicit) for a military takeover of a democratically elected government is widespread. This reveals the enormity of the challenge facing our society. Until we as a society – and our leaders in particular – can categorically renounce and reject the use of violence in our political life – democracy has little hope of becoming an entrenched force in our lives. And we will never realize our full potential as a country.