Asia grows most of the world’s rice output and 90 per cent of rice is produced by small farmers who depend on it for their livelihood and food security. The role of rice in national and global food security systems will increase, not only because of increases in population and purchasing power, but also because of likely changes in climate and sea level rise due to global warming. An immediate task is bridging the gap between potential and actual yields, widely prevalent in several rice growing countries and particularly in different parts of India. This is possible even at currently available levels of technology, through mutually reinforcing packages of technology, services and public policies. In the decades ahead, more rice will have to be produced under conditions of shrinking per capita arable land and irrigation water availability and expanding biotic and abiotic stresses. Due to breeding efforts based on an appropriate integration of Mendelian and molecular techniques, the ceiling to yield is being raised continuously (Figure 1).
Aided by biotechnology, the greatest potential for productivity gains in yield ceiling in the future lies in rainfed environments (Peacock & Chaudhury 2002). Integrating genetic efficiency with genetic diversity of diverse gene pool through pre-breeding and participatory breeding should be encouraged (Figure 2). Hybrid rice, ‘Super rice’ and ‘Super hybrid rice’ are likely to dominate the rice world in the future. What is however important is the initiation of research which can lead to the standardisation of methods of feeding the rice plant for higher yields in an ecologically sustainable manner. Research on breeding and feeding for higher yields should proceed concurrently.
We have several simple and elegant tools that enable us to manipulate the rice genome to elicit desirable responses — tolerance to pests and diseases, moisture stress, salinity-alkalinity, heat, increased photosynthetic efficiency, dry matter accumulation, and source sink partitioning. Rice gene sequence information is widely viewed as an invaluable asset for developing products and technologies. Because of advances in molecular mapping and breeding, there are new opportunities for improving the nutritive qualities of rice, with particular reference to iron, vitamin A and other micronutrients. Under an expanding Intellectual Property Rights (IPR) regime, it is important that research for public good receives the needed support at the national and international levels so that the resource poor can gain from it. Farmers have to achieve revolutionary progress in productivity, quality and value addition. The emerging ecological, economic and social challenges have to be met through partnerships among rice researchers and developmental organizations, committed to the cause of improving the productivity, profitability, sustainability and stability of rice farming systems.
Pingali et al. (1997) have described in detail the steps needed to increase rice production in Asia to meet future needs. If global warming and the associated changes in temperature, precipitation and sea level rise do occur, the position of rice in national and global food security systems will increase, since rice has the ability to grow under very diverse environmental conditions. Rice is by far the best-adapted crop to lowland soils that are prone to flooding during wet season. They draw attention to the following challenges facing rice research and development agencies:
- Productivity gains from the exploitation of Green Revolution technologies are close to exhaustion.
- In the absence of further technical change, Asian farmers face increasing costs per tonne of rice produced.
- Adverse agricultural externalities are increasing due to lack of holistic perspective of the farm resource base management.
- Despite an anticipated decline in per capita rice consumption, aggregate Asian demand for rice is expected to increase by 50 to 60 per cent during the 1990–2025 period due to population increase and poverty reduction.
- Economic growth and the commercialization of agricultural systems could reduce the competitiveness of rice relative to other crops and other farm enterprises.
- An upward shift in rice yield frontier is necessary to meet future rice requirements and to sustain farm-level profits.
Compounding these problems, there are potential dangers arising from the diminishing investment in research in institutions devoted entirely to national and international public good and the expanding intellectual property rights (IPR) regime. The question now is how much more improvement can we bring about in productivity without ecological harm? In other words, can we launch an evergreen revolution in rice in the new millennium, marked by sustained advances in productivity, profitability, stability and sustainability of rice farming systems (Swaminathan 1996; 2000; 2002a). How can we also increase the role of rice in the nutritional security of families dependent on it for their dietary energy supply? How can rice production be insulated from the adverse impact of potential changes in precipitation, temperature and rise in sea level? Above all, how can we maintain and strengthen international cooperation in rice improvement?
Due to imperfect adaptation to local environments, insufficient provision of nutrients and water, and incomplete control of pests, diseases and weeds the present average rice yield is just 40 per cent of what can be achieved even with technologies currently on the shelf. There is considerable scope for further investment in land improvement through drainage, terracing, control of acidification, etc. in areas where these have not already been introduced. While irrigated areas are making good progress, there is need for more attention on intensive research and development in rainfed, low land and upland areas. Ensuring that benefits from technology accrue to resource poor or marginal farmers will require special efforts as outlined in the case studies in section 5.
An integrated approach is necessary to remove the technological, infrastructure and social and policy constraints responsible for the productivity gap and in some cases, productivity decline. Reducing the cost of production through eco-technologies and improving income through efficient production and post-harvest technologies will help to enhance opportunities for both skilled employment and farm income. Public policies should not only pay attention to agrarian reform and input and output pricing, but also to reaching the unreached in technology dissemination through training, techno-infrastructure and trade. A constraints analysis of the type shown in Figure 3 should be undertaken. Public policy on anticipating and avoiding production constrains research on facilitating adoption of new technology by small farmers should receive as much attention as agronomic research.
Future agricultural production programmes will have to be based on a three-pronged strategy designed to foster an evergreen revolution, which leads to increased production without associated ecological and social harm. These strategies include defending the gains already achieved, extending the gains to rainfed areas and making new gains through farming systems diversification and value addition.
There is need for stepping up maintenance research for ensuring that new strains of pests and pathogens do not cause crop losses and prevent the introduction of invasive alien species. Water harvesting, watershed development and economic and efficient water use can help to enhance productivity and income considerably. Where water is scarce, high value but low water requiring crops should be promoted. As pulses and oilseeds are important income earning and soil enriching crops, they should be included in rice farming systems.
There is need to develop and disseminate eco-technologies for rain-fed and semi-arid, hill and island areas, which have so far been bypassed by modern yield enhancement technologies. Regional imbalances in agricultural development are growing based largely on the availability of assured irrigation on the one hand and assured and remunerative marketing opportunities on the other. The introduction of eco-regional technology missions that look at all the links in the chain and work towards the stipulated goal, aimed at providing appropriate packages of technology, the specific farm infrastructure services required by the techonology (techno-infrastructure), and input and output pricing and marketing policies, will help to include the excluded in agricultural progress. Technologies for elevating and stabilizing yields are available for semi-arid and dry farming areas (Ryan & Spencer 2001). Therefore the emphasis should be on farming systems that can optimize the benefits of natural resources in a sustainable manner and not merely on cropping systems. Dry farming areas are also ideal for the cultivation of low water requiring but high value pulses and oilseeds.
Farming systems intensification, diversification and value-addition should be promoted. Watershed and wasteland atlases should be used for developing improved farming systems, and designing what crops to grow based on soil structure so as to provide more income and jobs. Value addition to primary products should be done at the village itself. This will call for appropriate institutional structures which can help provide key centralized services to small and marginal farm families and provide them with the power of scale in eco-farming involving techniques like integrated pest management, integrated nutrient supply, scientific water management, precision farming, etc. as well as in marketing. A quantum leap in sophistication of management of all production factors will be required to sustain yield gains from the present levels to the commercially feasible threshold of about 80 per cent yield potential (Swaminathan 2001).
Institutional structures, which will confer upon farm families with small holdings, the advantages of scale at both the production and post-harvest phases of agriculture, are urgently needed. For example, thanks to the cooperative method of organisation of milk processing and marketing, India now occupies the first position in the world in milk production. Strategic partnerships with the private sector will help farmers’ organisations to have access to assured and remunerative marketing opportunities.
There are great opportunities for achieving higher yields per unit of land; provision of water at the right time to rice farmers enabled them to shift to precision farming methods. The five vital areas of research, development and extension, which need attention from the point of view of achieving environmentally sustainable advances in rice productivity, are soil health and fertility management; water management; integrated plant health management; energy management; and post-harvest management (for more details see Swaminathan 2004).
As earlier mentioned, this implies improvement of productivity in perpetuity without associated ecological harm. Rice scientists should foster an evergreen revolution in rice through partnerships for the development and dissemination of precision farming technologies. The major goals that were proposed for the FAO sponsored International Network for an Evergreen Revolution in Rice by Swaminathan (2002b) are as follows:
- Initiate an Integrated Gene Management programme.
- Improve productivity per unit of input, particularly of nutrients and water and thereby reduce the cost of production.
- Substitute to the extent possible knowledge and farm produced inputs for capital and market-purchased chemicals.
- Enhance the ecological and social sustainability of high-yield technologies.
- Increase farmers’ income and opportunities for skilled employment.
- Establish an information grid and farmer-participatory knowledge system for empowering women and men engaged in rice farming with new knowledge and skills, thereby conferring on rice farmers the strengths of Knowledge Societies.
These Strategies include Integrated Gene Management (IGM), integrated efforts in feeding and breeding rice for high productivity, information empowerment, overcoming hidden hunger caused by micronutrient deficiencies and promoting rice as a substrate for oral vaccines.
The IGM programme in rice should be based on conservation, sustainable use and equity in sharing benefits. The over 100,000 strains available today in rice is the result of the conservation ethics of farm and tribal families. Most of them are from Asian countries. India is the largest contributor to this collection followed by Laos (Appa Rao et al. 2002).
The challenge of micronutrient deficiencies in diet is becoming great especially for the chronically poor. Iodine, Vitamin A and iron deficiencies are serious in many parts of the developing world. Worldwide, iron deficiency affects over one billion children and adults. Recent analyses from the United States Institute of Medicine (Earl & Woteki 1998; Potrykus 1997; Swaminathan 2002a) highlight the effect of severe anaemia in accounting for up to one in five maternal deaths. Maternal anaemia is pandemic and is associated with high MMR; anaemia during infancy, compounded by maternal under-nutrition, leads to poor brain development. Iron deficiency is also a major cause of permanent brain damage and death in children and limits the work capacity of adults (Smith & Haddad 2000; Swaminathan 2002b). There is not enough appreciation of the serious adverse implications to future generations arising from the high incidence of low birth weight (LBW) among newborn babies. LBW is a major contributor to stunting and affects brain development in the child. The new millennium will be a knowledge century, with agriculture and industry becoming more knowledge intensive. Denial of opportunities for the full expression of the innate genetic potential for mental development even at birth is the cruelest form of inequity that can prevail in any society (Smith & Haddad 2000). We must take steps to eliminate as soon as possible such inequity at birth leading to a denial of opportunities to nearly one out of every three children born in South Asia, for performing their legitimate role in the emerging knowledge century.
Wherever rice is the staple, a multi-pronged strategy for the elimination of hidden hunger should be developed by rice scientists. IRRI has undertaken research on enriching rice genetically with iron and other micronutrients. Fortification, promotion of balanced diets, new semi-processed foods involving an appropriate blend of rice and micro-nutrient rich millets as well as genetic improvement, could all form part of an integrated strategy to combat the following major nutritional problems in predominantly rice eating families:
- Protein-energy Malnutrition
- Nutritional anaemia (Iron deficiency)
- Vitamin A deficiency
- Iodine deficiency
- Dietary deficiencies of thiamin, riboflavin, fat, calcium, vitamin C and zinc
Swaminathan (2002a) suggested that the International Rice Commission could include nutrition security aspect as an integral part of the International Network. We must fight the serious threat to the intellectual capital of developing countries caused by low birth weight children and hidden hunger (UN Commission on Nutrition). Some of the research areas worthy of attention in this context are described below.
Nutritive quality is as important as cooking quality for countries in tropical Asia, where rice is the principal source of dietary protein, vitamin (B1) and minerals (Fe, Ca) (Juliano & Villareal 1993). Rice provides about 40 per cent of the protein in the Asian diet. Among the cereal proteins, rice protein is considered to be biologically the richest by virtue of its high digestibility (88 per cent), high lysine content (+ 4 per cent) and relatively better net protein utilization. Yet, it is nutritionally handicapped on account of two factors viz: (i) its inherently low protein content (6–8 per cent) and (ii) inevitable milling loss of as much as 15–20 per cent. Unlike in other cereals, increased protein content in rice does not result in decreased protein quality as all of its fractions (glutelin 65 per cent, globulin and albumin 15 per cent and lysine-cysteine rich prolamin 14 per cent) are rich in lysine and other essential amino acids. Even a marginal increase of 2 percentage points of protein, therefore, would mean 10–15 per cent increase in the nutritionally rich protein intake in our diet.
Breeding for Nutritional Improvement was recommended at the 19th Session of the International Rice Commission, which called for an increase in focus on strategies to combat malnutrition (Philip et al. 2000; Gopalan 2001). There are four categories of direct interventions believed to be successful in reducing micronutrients malnutrition; supplementation, fortification, dietary diversification and genetic enhancement. Nutritional status of populations will focus on the potential for improving malnutrition, primarily micronutrient malnutrition through genetic improvement.
About 250 million people worldwide are deficient in vitamin A. Over five million children in South and South-east Asia are reported to suffer from the serious eye disease ‘xerophthalmia’ every year and about 5,00,000 of them eventually become partially or totally blind due to deficiency of vitamin-A. Besides affecting vision, vitamin-A deficiency predisposes children to varied respiratory and intestinal diseases resulting in high mortality. Researchers from Swiss Federal Institute of Technology inserted these genes from daffodil and a bacterium into temperate rice plants to produce a modified grain, which has sufficient β carotene (precursor of vitamin A) to meet total vitamin A requirements in a typical Asian diet (Ye et al. 2000). Golden rice technology was made available to developing nations for research. If this technology can be moved to the production stage, it could represent an important contribution to improved human nutrition. In particular, rice fortified genetically with vitamin A and iron will be very useful to improve the nutritional status of pregnant and nursing women.
Iron deficiency anaemia (IDA) is the world’s most common nutritional deficiency. It affects pregnant and nursing women and young children most commonly. IDA in mothers predisposes to still births, neonatal mortality, anaemia and low birth weight in infants, and increases the risk of maternal mortality (Swaminathan 2002; Earl & Woteki 1994). Regular intake of iron or administration of iron prevents anaemia. Daily supplementation with iron-folic acid tablets is a low-cost and effective intervention.