The test launch of missiles by North Korea shook Beijing’s confidence in its past policy toward North Korea. The nuclear test conducted by North Korea was the last straw to substantively spur Beijing to rethink its relationship with the North.

China has implemented a range of measures in response to North Korea’s defiant attitude, its missile test firing and to the negative consequences that may arise in North Korea’s internal situation as a result of its actions. In terms of its overall approach, following the missile test and before the nuclear test, China began to initiate coercive diplomatic measures toward Pyongyang. This can be seen by a number of changes in China’s actions toward North Korea. To begin, total trade volume between China and North Korea was reduced, especially on key products such as iron, steel, chemical and plant products. China temporarily froze an existing agreement for a large-scale development project for border trade between the two countries. An important outcome of Kim Jong-il’s visit to China in January 2006 was to increase economic and trade cooperation between the border cities and regions. A large-scale border trade summit, originally scheduled for September 2006 and to be attended by high-ranking officials from both sides, was cancelled.

Meanwhile, China delayed large-scale aid measures for North Korea following the flood disaster in July 2006 and only initially provided some symbolic aid through the Red Cross. Although South Korea announced large-scale aid worth 200 billion Korean won, China stated subsequently on 30 August that ‘the Chinese government is very concerned about the disaster in North Korea, and has decided to give humanitarian assistance, including grain, food, diesel and medicine’, although China had yet to decide on the specific amount of goods.^[11] China later decided to provide 50 000 tonnes of aid—the equivalent of half of South Korea’s aid. It is a rare occurrence that China lags behind South Korea in providing disaster relief for North Korea, and it is a bellwether of China’s new tendency to use economic leverage to punish the North Korean regime. As shown in Table 1 and Table 2, China-North Korea trade between July 2005 and January 2006 basically remained stagnant.

(Source: January–July 2006 statistics from China Customs. Its website is at <http://english.customs.gov.cn/default.aspx>, accessed 17 June 2009.)

Besides economic and aid measures, China has sent more troops to the China-North Korea border region. Although the Chinese media reported that China was sending reinforcements to the border and carrying out missile drills in the Changbai Mountains in mid-July 2006 as part of a ‘routine military exercise’, the fact is that China wants to enhance its ability to react in case of a contingency involving North Korea.^[12] This does not represent the position of the military; rather, it indicates that China’s senior leadership is very concerned about the possibility of an emergency in North Korea and has to intensify any preparation for it in the near future.

China has also tightened visa management for North Koreans entering China in an attempt to prevent North Korea from making further use of China as a conduit for illegal activities, such as smuggling and the lynching of its own citizens who try to seek sanctuary in China.

In addition, China is participating in multilateral sanctions for the first time. Furthermore, it is carrying out bilateral sanctions against North Korea. China will not obstruct strict economic sanctions and may temporarily suspend oil supplies to North Korea via the UNSC, though it would likely stop short of allowing military action against North Korea.

Yet, despite the tremendous diplomatic and political pressure exerted on China by North Korea’s missile and nuclear tests, China’s leaders will continue to explore the boundaries of influencing its southern neighbour. They will continue to maintain the principle of a soft approach to head off the North Korean nuclear issue. Before the North Korean nuclear test, Beijing would not have pushed its close neighbour and ‘brother’ into a corner, because this would not only have contravened China’s own interests but also departed from the broadly accepted thinking of the Chinese people. However, if sanctions cannot move North Korea to abandon its nuclear weapons, the possibility that China will employ other means to roll back North Korea’s nuclear weapons program is real. If this is the only alternative, China will use a variety of methods to accomplish that goal, including coercive diplomacy. The crucial issue here is that China will have to make a decision on how best to proceed.

How China addresses the problem of a nuclear North Korea has more to do with its resolve and less to do with its policy. Prior to the nuclear test, China saw no imperative to act decisively against North Korea: now the situation has changed dramatically. China has no alternative but to employ any and all means to get North Korea to return to its commitments to abandon nuclear weapons (exemplified in the September 2005 Joint Statement) and to map out with other parties a feasible plan to trade its nuclear capabilities for economic compensation and diplomatic normalisation. Thus, as Ambassador Wang Guangya said at the United Nations, ‘no one is going to protect North Korea if it continues with its bad behaviour’.^[13] China has lost its patience and its will to allow this issue to stagnate in multilateral talks. Hu Jintao presently looks to have more resolve than ever before to safeguard China against any diversion from the country’s economic construction. Firmly addressing a nuclear North Korea is a big test for Hu and for China. It will add significantly to his capability and power within China and also bolster China’s prestige internationally.