Table of Contents
The Southern Highlands Province (SHP) is undoubtedly Papua New Guinea’s worst performing province. It is abundant in natural resources and its provincial budget is one of Papua New Guinea’s highest, yet services barely operate and human development indicators are amongst the lowest in Papua New Guinea. Whilst conflict has always been a part of life in SHP, since the late 1990s the incidence of violent conflict and crime has increased markedly. Correlating with this rise in violence has been a serious decline in governance standards and an associated deterioration in basic service delivery.
This chapter seeks to provide a Conflict Vulnerability Assessment of SHP.[1] As such its main objectives are to identify the key sources or drivers of conflict in SHP and to identify the issues that have the potential to further inflame conflict or promote peace and stability.
A modified version of the Country Indicators for Foreign Policy (CIFP) Risk Assessment Template [2] was utilised as a framework for this assessment. CIFP attempts to apply rigour to the process of conflict risk assessment by analysing a country's situation against internationally identified conflict risk indicators.
Specifically, this report is structured around seven of CIFP’s leading conflict risk indicators, namely:
historical factors;
political/governance factors;
security sector factors;
social factors;
economic factors;
environment and natural resource factors; and
international factors (see Table 13.1).
As peace-conflict dynamics are fluid, this vulnerability/risk assessment will be subject to ongoing review and refinement. It should therefore be considered as a preliminary diagnostic only, providing a foundation for ongoing analysis and monitoring of peace-conflict dynamics in SHP.
Repeated episodes of violent conflict and lawlessness indicate propensity to resort to violence to air grievances/ resolve disputes.
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Clustered Conflict Risk Indicators |
Key issues in SHP |
Level of Concern |
|---|---|---|
|
|
Medium |
|
|
High |
|
|
High |
|
|
High |
|
|
High |
|
|
Low |
|
|
Low |
Fighting is viewed as a legitimate means of prosecuting claims and exacting retribution for ‘wrongs’. However, traditional non-violent dispute resolution mechanisms exist and there is not typically an immediate recourse to violence.
Probability of SHP-wide civil conflict low when a fight is triggered by localised dispute. This is because divergence in ‘tribal identities’ means that conflict in one part of SHP typically does not translate into conflict in other parts of SHP.
Traditional disputes are, however, increasingly manipulated for political purposes (e.g. election campaigning), raising the potential for these conflicts to spread beyond localised areas. For example, it is possible that support for the creation of a Hela province in the 2007 elections could prove divisive if political leaders are successful in mobilising the public for or against the cause.
Ready access to small arms has changed the character of contemporary tribal warfare and increased casualty rates (see security sector factors).
SHP's Western regional administrator reports that there were 164 conflict-related deaths in the Tari area alone in 2003 and 40 such deaths between January and August 2004.
The transition to nation-state has diminished the influence of those traditional power structures that kept violent confrontation within certain limits, and has created a power vacuum in areas where the state's role is minimal and traditional authority has broken down.
The Western justice system is about crime and punishment, whereas the Melanesian system is about crime and reparation (compensation). Disputes cannot be resolved and justice is not seen to have been done until compensation has been paid. For this reason, the magistrate in Mendi reports that awareness-raising is required to educate people about the legal system and the role of a magistrate (many think he ‘makes up the law’ rather than interprets it).
Lack of state-consolidated power and capacity to intervene has meant that modern law and justice systems are a ‘veneer, an overlay’.
Tribal fights tend to be triggered by small disputes over ‘pigs, land and women’. Village courts if they were functioning could most likely resolve these disputes before they escalate. Unfortunately village courts have largely ceased to function in SHP and those that are functioning have no power to enforce rulings.
Traditionally conflict sprang from the community level or ‘bottom-up’, but now many conflicts are triggered from the ‘top-down’ (being politically motivated), rendering traditional conflict resolution methods less effective.
During the 1980s traditional leadership structures began to change, with more senior leaders devolving responsibilities to younger ‘Western educated’ males with better ability to interact with foreign resource companies.
Resort to violence for dispute resolution is a longstanding feature of SHP society. While conflict is usually localised and non-violent dispute mechanisms continue to function, the declining influence of traditional mechanisms and weakening state justice institutions (combined with increased access to firearms) indicate that the incidence of violent conflict is likely to increase — particularly when manipulated by provincial leaders for political purposes.