Tonga’s economic future is precarious, and heavily reliant on the expectation of continued high levels of remittances. If the second generation does not maintain these remittances at these high levels, and alternative sources of income are unlikely to be found, the obvious solution would appear to be an increased flow of new migrants. This solution is impossible without changes to the immigration policies of the main host nations — the USA, New Zealand and Australia — which have tightened in recent years and made it more difficult for Tongans to migrate.

In Australia, there has been an overall downward trend in migration from Tonga in the past two decades; numbers have fluctuated annually from a high of 287 in 1997 to 83 in 2001, and have not reached more than 200 since 1998 (Australian Bureau of Statistics 2003). The most recent figures available are from 2002-3, during which period 92 Tongan-born migrants arrived in Australia from Tonga, and a further 116 who were Tongan-born citizens of New Zealand (DIMIA, online 2003a). Only three of the 92 were in the skilled migrant category; the remainder were family migrants and thus could include migrants of any age, such as elderly relatives of previous migrants or young children. Of course, as more family members join those already living overseas, migrants’ networks of relatives in Tonga shrink and remittances are likely to decline as a consequence. During that same period, 103 Tongans left Australia permanently; 47 had been in Australia for more than 10 years (DIMIA, online 2003b). Net migration for that period was thus 105. Of the new migrants, any adults arriving from New Zealand are likely to have already established any remitting practices they intended to maintain, so only those from Tonga can be considered potential ‘new remitters’, so in effect it could be argued that there was a net drop in potential new remitters in Australia for that year.

Whether or not this pattern is also found in New Zealand and the USA needs further research, however, compiling accurate migration statistics is extremely difficult. Tonga does not maintain adequate statistical records of migrant departures, each host nation has its own methods of data collection and classification, and there are a number of ‘overstayers’ in each host nation who are not recorded. If it can be shown that migration is in fact declining, it can be predicted that the MIRAB model will begin to unravel for countries such as Tonga, where the migration-remittance nexus has been so crucial for sustaining their economies.

There is some faint hope that Australia will review its migration policies for Pacific Islanders, in the wake of the Australian Senate report, A Pacific Engaged (Foreign Affairs, Defence and Trade References Committee 2003). Much of the evidence to the committee concerned special migration access for Pacific Islanders, to ‘learn new skills and earn money that could be remitted back to the home country to support family networks and contribute to their economies’ (p. 69). Labour migration schemes have been considered since the early 1980s, and in 1997 the report of the Committee of Review of Australia’s aid policy stated that special migration programs for Islanders ‘may prove to be more cost-effective than continuing high levels of aid in perpetuity. Limited access to Australia, either on a temporary or a permanent basis, has been argued for as an effective way to assist the very small states whose only export is labour services’ (cited p. 70). The Senate Committee concluded that a guest worker scheme would support ‘Australia’s national interest in so far as it would contribute to the sustainable economic and social development of the region, contributing to stability’ (p. 75).

Australian governments have, however, long resisted the introduction of such schemes, arguing that there is a high rate of unemployment for ‘low-skill[ed] people in Australia’ and that there is a risk of workers being exploited, or overstaying their visas (pp. 73–4). This resistance was again evident at the Pacific Islands Forum meeting in October 2005, when the Australian Government rejected recommendations in the forum’s Pacific Plan to initiate temporary labour mobility programs. Nevertheless, the issue continues to be debated and is likely to be revisited as Pacific nations’ economic woes continue to worsen.