[1] Even a stable proportion of urban population in the total population would imply some rural–urban migration, as fertility rates have fallen faster in urban areas than in the countryside (in 1989 the crude birth rate in urban areas was 24.1 compared to 33.6 in rural areas). The corresponding crude death rates were 5.1 and 7.9, suggesting a significant difference in the urban and rural natural rates of population increase (General Statistics Office 1994). A 1994 survey indicates that the differences in fertility persist (General Statistics Office 1995).
[2] Except for the male cohort of 45-54 at that time, which had been severely depleted by war deaths.
[3] A term used to denote 'the radical declines in death and birth rates associated with societal modernization' (Boom and Williamson 1998:419-56). They argue that a demographic bonus has contributed to the stellar economic performance in East Asia in recent decades.
[4] Alternative definitions might result in a significantly higher figure. The Viet Nam Urban Sector Strategy Study (Final Report November 1995) noted that the Vietnamese definition of urban residence did not conform to international practice, as rural areas within cities and municipalities were excluded from the urban totals; the study team estimated that, using the more inclusive definition about 8 per cent more of the population resided in urban areas (resulting in a total of 28.1 per cent).
[5] The estimate in the Table is from an ADB source that allows regional comparisons. The GSO estimates that about 76 per cent of the population were living in rural areas in 2000.
[6] Based on the 1999 Census, the urban populations of the three provinces were Hanoi 1.552 million, Hai Phong 0.572 million and Ho Chi Minh City 4.245 million. However, as the urban-rural distinction is necessarily somewhat arbitrary and the peri-urban rural areas are very much part of the urban economies, the total provincial populations may be more revealing of relative size. The total provincial population in 1999 was estimated to be Hanoi 2.685 million, Hai Phong 1.691 million and Ho Chi Minh City 5.222 million.
[7] At least in terms of the eventual production possibilities. There are still difficult water management and infrastructure constraints to be resolved.
[8] In 2001, Tokyo had a population of about 26.4 million, Shanghai, 12.9 million; Jakarta, 11.0 million; Osaka, 11.0 million; Manila, 10.9 million; Beijing, 10.8 million; and Seoul, 9.9 million in 2000 (see McNicholl 2002:20).